Abstract
Probability of Earthquake Occurrences to Cankiri Province
Due to for tectonic activity, Cankiri province is located at quite a moving belt. It aims to investigate the probability of earthquake occurrences to Cankiri province and to compute the average recurrence periods by selected stochastic approach. In this study, earthquake data which is equal to or greater than four according to Richter scale are used. Probability of earthquake occurrences and recurrence periods of Cankiri were found by using the equation of Gutenberg and Richter (1954) with magnitude – frequency statistic method and Poisson (1838) method. As a results of study; (1) The probability of an earthquake occurrence at Cankiri in 100 years period, was calculated 78%, 45% and 26% respectively magnitudes for (xM) 6,0, 6,5 and 7,0. (2) There is a high probability of coming across to larger magnitude earthquakes for inhabitants.
Keywords
Cankiri, Earthquake, Earthquake Probability, Poisson Method.
