2017 Kasım Sayısı English
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Abstract


Primary Surplus and Some Budget Items Between Relation of Causality
Crises form an opportunity basis for reforms and pave the way for making and implementing reform decisions. The 2001 economic crisis in Turkey brought a reform opportunity in its wake. A series of reforms which started with Mr. Dervish, aimed at forming a steady public financial system and banking system in our country. Fiscal discipline is to bring public expenditures under control. Public sector had a non-productive, bankrupt and partial image before crisis. General Accounting Law No. 1050 wasn't inclusive of whole public sector and a substantial part of public expenditures were actualized outside of the parliamentary control. Some financial reforms were made in the after crisis period to eliminate these problems and to strengthen the financial system. In this study the effects of these reforms - made after 2001 - on the fiscal discipline in the budget-axis will be evaluated within the frame of financial-legal regulations and the budget law for the year. Primary surplus between certain budget items are subjected to causality test. Interest Payments/GDP, investment Expenditure/GDP, Transfer Spending/GDP and Public Expenditure/surplus GDP variables is the cause of MYB granger causality were found. Also under the 2006-2014 period, Primary Surplus, General Government Debt Stock, growth rate, interest rates and inflation were investigated for the causal relationship between them. According to the granger causality results just growth rate impact on primary surplus although primary surplus in the long term, effective on especially growth and inflation rates.

Keywords
Budget, Financial Discipline, Financial Reform, Economic Crises


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