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The Examination with the Aid of Almon Approach of Cobweb Theorem to Tomato Production in Turkey
The cobweb theorem is a theory which explains supply and demand disparity caused by periodic price fluctuations that emerge from increasing demand during current period due to several reasons. There are lots of econometric analyses that are used to describe this theory. One of these is the Almon Model, which is a distributed lag econometrics model. In this research, it is aimed to describe the relationship between tomato production and tomato prices in the framework of the Almon Model approach. There search period is between 1994-2013. According to the findings that are gained from the model, tomato production in Turkey is retrospectively affected by the prices two years ago at the very most. Where as the prices of “t” period and “t-1” period affect the production positively, the prices of “t-2” period have a negative effect. In the research the validation of the Cobweb Theorem has been proven.This result indicates that price stability through production planning and accordingly supply and demand balance is a necessity. In this way, both production and consumption will be defined and recorded as data and there will be the opportunity to make more reliable predictions. Besides the deficiency due to surplus and high price mechanism due to demand surplus will be avoided.

Anahtar Kelimeler
Cobweb theory, Almon Model, Tomato, Production-Price, Turkey.

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